AI The possibility of (AI) surpassing human intelligence has been hotly discussed and debated by technology experts, scientists and futurists for decades. However, since the release of the generative AI chatbot ChatGPT, the debate about whether AI will replace humans has intensified. The emergence of generative AI has led to technology giants such as Google, Meta, Amazon and even Microsoft joining the battle to develop their own language models.
In view of the rapid development of artificial intelligence, Tesla CEO ElonMusk Elon Musk believes that the time is coming when artificial intelligence surpasses human intelligence. He even boldly predicts that by the end of 2029, artificial intelligence will surpass the intelligence level of the entire human race.
Musk's comments stem from an interview between podcast host Joe Rogan and renowned futurist Ray Kurzweil, in which Kurzweil asserted that artificial intelligence will reach human intelligence levels by 2029. Kurzweil has been focusing on analyzing the exponential growth of technology, especially in the field of artificial intelligence. According to his analysis, humans are rapidly improving computing power, algorithmic complexity, and data processing capabilities. Therefore, he believes that these advances will inevitably enable artificial intelligence systems to reach and eventually surpass human intelligence.
Kurzweil said that people may think that it will take another 100 years for AI to be smarter than humans, but he believes that AI may even achieve this milestone in a shorter time, such as within the next five years, which is very similar to Elon Musk's prediction. Interestingly, Kurzweil predicted this advancement in AI as early as 1999.
Musk has been outspoken about the potential risks of artificial intelligence. In response to Kurzweil's prediction, he emphasized that artificial intelligence may become smarter than humans much sooner, and it may even happen next year. By 2029, Musk believes that artificial intelligence will not only match all human individuals, but may also exceed the collective intelligence of all humans.“AI could be smarter than any one person next year. By 2029, AI could be smarter than all humans,”Musk wrote on X.
Whether AI surpasses human intelligence in 2029, as Kurzweil predicts, or sooner, as Musk predicts, one thing is certain: the development of AI is on the fast track. This rapid development brings both exciting opportunities and huge challenges. Experts believe that humans must be prepared to use the power of AI for the benefit of mankind while mitigating potential risks and ensuring that AI is developed ethically and for the benefit of mankind. The next few years will be an important turning point in shaping the future of AI and its impact on our world.