recently,NvidiaThe research team developed aStormCastThe AI model can predict thunderstorms within a few kilometers. This technological breakthrough is of great significance to the field of weather forecasting, because it has always been very challenging to capture the complex dynamics of the atmosphere at such a fine scale.
The StormCast model combines two innovative technologies. The researchers used a generative model that simulates a variety of possible development scenarios. StormCast also presents a dense atmospheric state with multiple vertical layers, ensuring the accuracy and comprehensiveness of the forecast. The model works in a similar way to the High Resolution Rapid Update (HRRR) model currently used by the weather agency NOAA, which can predict 99 state variables at a scale of 3 kilometers and update every hour, focusing particularly on the dynamics of the lowest layers of the atmosphere.
In tests, StormCast showed similar forecast quality to the HRRR model, especially in predicting the probability of light, moderate and heavy rainfall, with an accuracy of up to 6 hours. The model also successfully reproduced the development of thunderstorm cells, updrafts, downdrafts, and the flow of cold air below thunderstorms.
A significant advantage of StormCast is the ability to easily create ensemble forecasts, which are a group of slightly different forecasts. Using just five ensemble members, StormCast outperformed a single HRRR run. Creating ensemble forecasts is often computationally intensive with traditional weather models.
Of course, the research team also realizes that there are still some challenges, such as future models needing to learn on more training data and larger areas. In addition, the calibration of the set can also be further improved.
Nevertheless, the research team believes that these results pave the way for a new generation of high-resolution, AI-assisted weather models. Such models are expected to help meteorologists predict dangerous thunderstorms more accurately and quickly, thereby reducing losses and casualties. At the same time, these models also show broad application prospects in local climate prediction.
Official blog: https://blogs.nvidia.com/blog/stormcast-generative-ai-weather-prediction/